Where Are the Taliban and Afghanistan Headed After the Fall of Kabul?

The situation in Afghanistan is fluid and rapidly evolving. In the wake of these dramatic events, our analyst team has been focused on where things are headed, and yesterday we produced the intelligence brief below that addresses the key questions we’re monitoring, including:

• With the collapse of the Afghan police and security forces, where are the former soldiers and police going, and where are their weapons?
• Are they fleeing Afghanistan, shifting sides, or just reverting to their ethnic and tribal affiliations, and thus becoming the nuclei of numerous localized militia?
• What will the spillover be across the region, particularly in India?
   

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