Is Political Violence the New Normal in the U.S.?

For months, political scientists, researchers, and governmental officials have been warning about the increasing normalization of political violence in U.S. politics. The second assassination attempt against former President Trump has only added to these concerns as many worry about the threat of further violence in the closing weeks of the election campaign.

Concerns about the increase in violent threats and attacks are not just creating more risk for national politicians. A recent survey showed that 43% of state legislators and 18% of local officeholders have received threats as well. Separately, Secretary of Homeland Security Mayorkas warned about the threat of lone actors attacking polling places and election workers. Many businesses worry that their physical infrastructure and employees could also be direct targets of violence or secondarily harmed by unrest.

As the November 5 Election Day approaches, RANE analysis suggests that the likelihood of disruptive demonstrations, targeted violence, and other politically-motivated physical and cyberattacks will rise. A disputed presidential election outcome would increase the probability of widespread and longer-lasting unrest that more significantly threatens personal safety and business continuity.

Join us as our analysts weigh in on how various scenarios may play out and the implications for individuals and businesses in the U.S. and abroad.