Elections 2024: Deep Dive into the European Parliament Elections

One of the more significant elections occurring in 2024 is the European parliament elections, which will be held June 9. Opinion polls suggest this election will see right-wing and far-right parties making significant gains across several EU countries at the expense of center-left and green parties, with potentially significant policy implications for the bloc.

In RANE’s most likely scenario, despite gains from far-right parties, center-right and center-left forces retain their majority and largely reelect the current European Commission, keeping the European Union on a largely pro-European integration and environmentally ambitious pathway.

With the centrist alliance likely holding only a narrow majority, the lack of cohesion typical of European Parliament alliances means this scenario could involve more uncertain outcomes for commission proposals, often requiring modification to gain opposition party support for their passage. Given a broader shift from left to right in the overall representation in parliament as well as within the majority itself, right-wing groups could play a more influential role on contentious issues in areas such as climate change, migration, and the economy.

Join us as our analysts assess the likelihood of different election outcomes and the broader implications for multinational corporations.