RANE recently published its 2026 Annual Forecast containing our predictions for the upcoming year. To complement our forecast, we’ve compiled a list of the top high-impact, low-probability risks that were excluded from our annual forecast but could have significant implications, and trends that are covered in our forecast but are presented here in a more extreme nature. Their ordering and numbering are not meant to represent their likelihood or risk level.
- U.S. Strikes in Latin America Trigger Migration Flows, Insurgency
The United States aggressively expands its targeting of drug traffickers and leftist governments in Latin America, leading to significant refugee flows and insurgencies against the United States and its interests, including businesses. - U.S.-EU Ties Rupture Over Greenland, Trade Issues
U.S.-European ties fundamentally rupture over Greenland, NATO and trade issues, which Russia capitalizes on to increase pressure on Europe. - U.S. Trade Wars Reignite, Triggering Supply Chain Disruptions
The United States' new trade deals with China and the European Union fall apart, and Washington formally triggers and potentially even withdraws from its trade pact with Mexico and Canada. - Middle East Crisis Reemerges
Renewed conflict between Israel and Iran breaks out and cannot be contained, threatening the continuity of the Islamic regime in Tehran. - China Blockades Taiwan
China implements a naval blockade of Taiwan's key ports, disrupting global shipping and rapidly accelerating Western supply chain decoupling. - The AI Bubble Bursts
The collapse of investor confidence in the near-term profitability of AI companies triggers a bubble burst in the sector, creating ripple effects throughout the industry's value chain that also slow U.S. economic growth. - Backlash Against AI Escalates
Backlash against AI intensifies, triggering regulations on the sector and flashpoints between labor groups, employers and the government. - Russian Hybrid Activity in Europe Intensifies
A prolonged diplomatic stalemate or a shift in the balance of power around Ukraine prompts Russia to escalate its hybrid campaign against Europe as a means of coercion, increasing the risk of an open conflict. - Youth Protests Gain Momentum Across the Developing World
Tepid economic conditions and limited political or social freedoms catalyze youth-led "Gen Z" protests across the Global South, toppling several governments and creating political crises. - India-Pakistan Cross-Border Strikes Re-Emerge
India-Pakistan tensions boil over into repeated strikes on each other, heightening personal safety threats in the two countries and disrupting regional travel and business operations.
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