In 2026, political calculations among major global players will significantly shape international affairs. The U.S. midterm elections in November will influence not only the behavior of President Donald
Trump’s administration, but also that of key actors such as Russia, China and Israel. In the United States, the desire to avoid heightened economic volatility ahead of the elections will likely push the White House to preserve its fragile trade deal with China, even as periodic flare-ups linked to U.S. technology export restrictions and Chinese retaliation remain likely. In Russia, the prospect of a more hostile U.S. Congress emerging after the midterms may convince the Kremlin that 2026 represents the best opportunity to secure a Ukraine settlement on terms favorable to Moscow, though any such deal would be fragile and could trigger severe instability within Ukraine. In Israel, the government will likely continue its campaign of military attrition against multiple adversaries, while avoiding major escalations that could antagonize the White House during an election year...
