RANE recently published our 2025 Third Quarter Geopolitical Forecast, identifying the key trends and constraints that will shape global developments, particularly in light of a chaotic first quarter.
As you continue to execute your 2025 plan, this valuable report provides useful insights and analysis - some highlights include:
- The U.S. will pursue limited trade deals to suspend higher tariffs on key partners. Ongoing legal challenges to the tariffs, the fragility of negotiations, and White House unpredictability will keep tariff risks and business uncertainty high through the quarter.
- A comprehensive U.S.-China trade deal is unlikely due to persistent structural disagreements, but narrow agreements and an extension of reduced tariffs are expected. China will likely retaliate if new U.S. tariffs or tech restrictions are imposed.
- The Iran-Israel conflict will create a high risk of escalation and regional spillover, while Iran's likely withdrawal from the nuclear nonproliferation treaty will increase the risk of U.S. military involvement. Israel and Hamas are unlikely to agree on a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, though temporary truces remain possible under U.S. pressure.
- Ongoing diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine will keep the door open to ceasefire agreements, but insufficient external pressure and conflicting strategic goals mean that a comprehensive peace agreement is unlikely this quarter.
- India and Pakistan will continue pursuing de-escalation, including talks on troop withdrawals and water-sharing under the Indus Water Treaty. Persistent risks from militant attacks, water scarcity, and stalled treaty revisions could trigger renewed cross-border clashes.
We are pleased to share a summary report with a limited number of non-clients. You can download the report by completing the form below.
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